LO 69.1: Define, compare, and contrast VaR and tracking error as risk measures.

LO 69.1: Define, compare, and contrast VaR and tracking error as risk measures.
Value at risk (VaR) is defined to be the largest loss possible for a certain level of confidence over a specific period of time. For example, a firm could express its VaR as being 95% certain that they will lose a maximum of $5 million in the next ten days. Delta-normal VaR assumes a normal distribution, and its calculation reflects losses in the lower tail of the returns distribution.
Tracking error is defined as the standard deviation of excess returns. Excess return is defined as the portfolio return less the benchmark return (i.e., alpha). Assuming a normal distribution of excess returns, 95% of the outcomes will fall within the mean benchmark return plus or minus roughly two standard deviations.
VaR and tracking error are both measures of risk. An organizations objective is to maximize profits for a given level of risk taken. Too much risk taken (in comparison with budget) suggests a VaR level that is too high and a willingness to accept large losses to produce unnecessarily high returns. Too little risk taken suggests that there is not enough active management, and actual returns will fall short of budgeted returns.
VaR may be used to suggest the maximum dollar value of losses for a specific level of confidence over a specific time. From a portfolio management perspective, VaR could be determined for each asset class, and capital allocation decisions could be made amongst the asset classes depending on risk and return preferences. This will help to achieve targeted levels of dollar VaR. In contrast, tracking error may be used to determine the relative amount of discretion that can be taken by the portfolio manager (away from benchmark returns) in his or her attempts at active management.
Page 106
2018 Kaplan, Inc.
Topic 69 Cross Reference to GARP Assigned Reading – Litterman, Chapter 17
Ris k Pl a n n in g

Write a Comment